Fantasy Wednesdays: the usual suspects

Matt Larkin isn’t a total loser, but he doesn’t get laid much either. A large reason why? His borderline pathetic obsession with fantasy sports. Every Wednesday, he’ll post fantasy sports advice -- hot pickups, players to drop, buy lows and sell highs. Follow his tips and you’ll be winning pools and not having intercourse in no time.

Baseball is more predictable than any other fantasy sport. The law of average dominates. Career .300 hitters who hit .280 in the first half almost always hit .320 in the second half. Every year, prospects start popping up around now as non-contenders say “What the hell” and give them chances.

This week’s notable players fit baseball’s routine -- young call-ups or guys whose current numbers aren’t consistent with their averages but soon will be.

HOT PICKUPS

Andrew Miller, SP, Detroit Tigers

After shutting out Atlanta on Sunday, the Tigers rookie has won three of four starts this year. The first-round pick has the pedigree for success and isn’t owned in many fantasy leagues. Grab him now and enjoy a pile of wins as the Tigers offence keeps destroying every organism in sight.

Marlon Byrd, OF, Texas Rangers

Cast away by fantasy owners because of his Kirby Puckettesque physique and failure to live up to his hype, Byrd is quietly back on the radar. It's idiotic to believe he’ll maintain his .380 average, but it’s not insane to expect Byrd to hit .300 with a tater here and there for the next couple months. Pick him up in deep leagues but keep him on a short leash.

Dustin McGowan, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

He should be owned in virtually every deep league by now, but some of you play in those crappy shallow leagues with 10 teams filled only with superstars. Chances are someone dropped him after he shat the bed against the Dodgers last week only to watch in horror as he one-hit the Rockies. Snatch him if he’s still on the wire.

Billy Butler, LF, Kansas City Royals

Kansas City’s superprospect is back in the bigs, and there’s no way he won’t get a long look. He might take a while to heat up – not as long as Alex friggin’ Gordon, mind you -- but his pop makes him worth plugging into your last outfield spot in deep leagues or your bench in shallow ones.

DROPS

Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs

The Cubbies’ plucky utility man was the toast of the town in April and May, but Mike Fontenot is badly outplaying him now and stealing away at bats. Fine by me. I hate owning guys whose names I don’t like. Doesn’t Theriot sound like a penis? Probably cried when it “wasn’t fair teams” in kickball at recess.

Felipe Lopez, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals

Lopez was an unsung fantasy hero the last few years with his five-category production, but he’s fallen off the wagon this year. Washington is a black hole for hitters. To put it in perspective, I’d hit .158 with 0 HR and 17 RBI in a full season with the Yanks, but .068 with 0 HR and 6 RBI with the Nats. Translation: cut Lopez, but be ready to take him back if he’s dealt before the trade deadline.

BUY LOW

Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians

Pronk hasn’t been himself this year, possibly because he’s had the exhausting task of playing in the field the last month or so during interleague play. Still, we all know he posts video-game numbers in second half every year. Guys who’ve had similar years to date: Luis Gonzalez, Nick Markakis, Aaron Hill (!!???!!). If you can acquire Hafner for one or even two hitters of that calibre, do it and laugh all the way to a playoff berth.

Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco Giants

This is a classic “He can’t be that bad” situation. Zito’s season hasn’t been a total nightmare, but it’s been disappointing. However, he’s a strong second-half pitcher (3.92 career ERA pre-break, 3.26 after break) and he should be putting his wang in another celebrity any day now, so acquire him and let the law of averages do its job.

SELL HIGH

Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets

He’s playing through a nagging quad injury and his numbers are suffering. He could easily end up on the DL in the next few weeks. Sure, it’s a massive risk to deal him, but how much would it suck to have him on the shelf down the stretch? Test the waters. Don’t trade him away for a previously viewed copy of Corky Romano, but see if you can get a healthier superstar or multi-player package for him.

Brad Penny, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

He’s the anti-Zito -- great first half player, but he tires (he’s fat) in the second half. Don’t make the same mistake everyone made last year when he was the all-star game starter. Penny owners, Eliza Dushku included, should ship him off for someone who can handle the summer heat better.

Fantasy Wednesdays: One man's loss (teen pregnancy) is another's gain

Matt Larkin isn’t a total loser, but he doesn’t get laid much either. A large reason why? His borderline pathetic obsession with fantasy sports. Every Wednesday, he’ll post fantasy advice – hot pickups, players to drop, buy lows and sell highs. Follow his tips and you’ll be winning pools and not having intercourse in no time.

The familiar expression echoes through the soon-to-be-hobo’s head as he leaves the office building, carrying his possessions in a cardboard box and escorted by a security guard.

“As one door closes, another door opens.”

That’s what freshly fired people tell themselves. It’s funny, though – they got fired for a reason, and that reason will probably catch up to them at their next job and the one after that.

The old adage works much better for fantasy sports. Every closed door – every released player or injury – opens a door for another guy. That’s the theme of the week for fantasy baseball.

HOT PICKUPS

Jonny Gomes, RF/DH, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Forget that he’s the worst fielder this side of Manny Ramirez and that his bulging torso looks eerily similar to McGwire’s or Giambi’s. The guy draws walks and swings for the fences. Now that Elijah Dukes has Lamaze classes to skip, Gomes is getting at bats and making the most of them. Add him for some cheap homers.

Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy baseball circles are turning into Amsterdam. One hot pitching prospect after another is getting his cock sucked into oblivion by the experts. The latest victim: Gallardo. His pedigree puts him in a similar class to Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes, and he should whiff more batters than the latter two. His debut Monday night showed he’s ready to contribute at the major league level.

Jack Cust, OF/DH, Oakland Athletics

Many people added him several weeks ago when he looked like the second coming of Christ. Then he came back to Earth. Now he’s doin’ the Christ thang again, and with increased job security – Oakland’s delaying Mike Piazza’s return to convert him back to a catcher. Add Cust as a fifth or sixth outfielder for a good OBP and some pop. Plus, it’s fun owning a guy whose last name sounds like some sort of bacteria.

Hong-Chi Kuo, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

With Jason Schmidt back on the shelf, the Dodgers hope Kuo can fill the void. The Taiwanese lefty qualifies at reliever and can fan hitters – he struck out 71 in 59 2/3 innings last year. He’s still relatively unproven, but he’s worth adding for the major K upside.

DROPS

Garret Anderson, OF, Los Angels Angels

The fantasy grim reaper is hovering over poor Garret. The man’s hips have reached geriatric status. Don’t even waste a DL spot on him. Take him out to the shed for the Old Yeller treatment.

Jermaine Dye, OF, Chicago White Sox

Look away if you’re in a deep league, as you obviously have to ride out his slump. But shallow mixed leaguers can probably find better production on the waiver wire right now. Dye can’t buy a hit and he tweaked his quad Monday to boot.

SELL HIGH

Mike Lowell, 3B, Boston Red Sox

Lowell’s resurgence is legit, but a second-half swoon is almost guaranteed. Even in his all-star days, he shat the bed in the second half. His rumoured trade to Minnesota would also sap his lineup protection.

Dmitri Young, 1B, Washington Nationals

Da Meat Hook is fun to own for his nickname and fat, but he’s playing way over his head and he WILL NOT stay healthy. See if you can trade him for his brother.

BUY LOW

Chone Figgins, every friggin’ position, Los Angeles Angels

If you haven’t noticed his sizzling play of late, you’re probably not winning your league. But we all know there are plenty of idiot managers out there who only look at full-season ranks. Try to capitalize on his still-pedestrian overall numbers and swing a deal for him.

J.D. Drew, OF, Boston Red Sox

Drew’s a good enough hitter that he’ll put it together soon enough; he just needed to adjust to AL pitching. Now hitting leadoff, he’ll rake in the runs, and we ain’t talking diarrhea.

Andruw Jones, OF, Atlanta Braves

Has Andruw ever slumped this badly? Either way, he’ll come out of it. He’s a baseball player, and that makes him a mercenary by definition. No way he won’t bust ass over the next few months to guarantee a big free-agent pay day this offseason.